![]() ![]() ![]() The researchers argue that conflict will derive from economic uncertainties resulting from temperature-related yield declines in societies heavily dependent on agriculture. By year 2030, based on averaged data from 18 climate models, this amounts to a 54 percent increase in armed conflict incidence in the region. universities published “the first comprehensive examination of the potential impact of global climate change on armed conflict in sub-Saharan Africa” using regression analysis of historical data, and find a relationship between past internal conflict in subSaharan Africa and variations in temperature (but not precipitation) showing “substantial increases in conflict during warmer years.” In numerical terms, a 1 percent increase in temperature leads to a 4.5 percent increase in civil war in the same year and a 0.9 percent increase in the following year. Marshall Burke and his colleagues from U.S. ![]() This reflects findings that the incidence of conflict is likely to be higher in years of lower precipitation. The assumption is that water scarcity from changed rainfall patterns resulting from climate change contributed to the conflict in Darfur. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has described the conflict in Darfur as the world’s first climate change conflict. National Academy of Sciences claims that temperature rises in Africa have coincided with significant increases in the likelihood of war. A research paper, “Warming increases the risk of civil war in Africa,” presented to the U.S. ![]()
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